2020-08-18
Isao Miyazaki and John Rogers report on a new very bright spot in the NTropZ visible in images acquired by Isao Miyazaki on 18 August 2020. The storm is visible as a bright spot in visible wavelengths and is very bright in methane band images. This storm is the start of a new outbreak in the NTBs jetstream. Such convective storms produce NTB Disturbance in a regular cycle with the current event occurring one year ahead of the expected timeline.
Observations at all wavelengths and methane band of all longitudes of the planet are required to monitor the NTB. The outbreaks in the NTB are generally multiple with outbreaks separated in longitude tens of degree and initiated with time differences of one to a few Jupiter rotations.
The drift rate of the initial disturbance is -12.2 +/- 0.1 º/day (system III) at 22.9+/-0.5º (Pg). The plume moves at 165 m/s at 22.9º (pg) just a bit south to the NTB peak jet which in 2016-2017 had a peak velocity of 150 m/s. This means that, as predicted from observations of previous events, the convective disturbance moves faster than the zonal winds with the typical behavior of previous disturbances in the NTB.
We would like to encourage observers to observe ALL LONGITUDES in Jupiter combining visible or IR with methane band images. All previous similar disturbances produced different convective plumes in different longitudes. It is very important to catch the initial convective disturbance in its first 2 Jupiter rotations to acquire a quantitative measurement of its initial growth rate which is directly related with the enery released.
Updated ephemeris (based on tracking from 18 to 21 August) for the first plume are given below but please keep observing all other longitudes for the start of the next disturbances.
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UPDATE 03 September: A second convective outbreak has appeared on Jupiter and first imaged on 01 September
by Anthony Wesley
and on 02 September by Eric Sussenbach.
The new outbreak drifts similarly to the first outbreak with a drift rate of -11.6º/day and initial position as posted on the right image.
Ephemeris will be posted shortly.
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--- EPHEMERIS FOR THE FIRST OUTBREAK --- WinJUPOS 11.1.0 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2020/08/28 19:14 Object longitude: L3 = 177,3° - 12,2000°/d * (T - 2020 Aug 18,5) Time interval: 2020 Aug 16,0 ... 2020 Sep 16,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 3) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2020 Aug 16 03:51 ( 206°) 13:38 ( 201°) 23:25 ( 196°) 2020 Aug 17 09:13 ( 191°) 19:00 ( 186°) 2020 Aug 18 04:47 ( 181°) 14:34 ( 176°) 2020 Aug 19 00:22 ( 171°) 10:09 ( 166°) 19:56 ( 161°) 2020 Aug 20 05:43 ( 156°) 15:31 ( 151°) 2020 Aug 21 01:18 ( 146°) 11:05 ( 141°) 20:52 ( 136°) 2020 Aug 22 06:40 ( 131°) 16:27 ( 126°) 2020 Aug 23 02:14 ( 121°) 12:02 ( 117°) 21:49 ( 111°) 2020 Aug 24 07:36 ( 106°) 17:23 ( 101°) 2020 Aug 25 03:11 ( 97°) 12:58 ( 92°) 22:45 ( 86°) 2020 Aug 26 08:32 ( 81°) 18:20 ( 77°) 2020 Aug 27 04:07 ( 72°) 13:54 ( 66°) 23:41 ( 61°) 2020 Aug 28 09:29 ( 57°) 19:16 ( 52°) 2020 Aug 29 05:03 ( 46°) 14:51 ( 42°) 2020 Aug 30 00:38 ( 37°) 10:25 ( 32°) 20:12 ( 26°) 2020 Aug 31 06:00 ( 22°) 15:47 ( 17°) 2020 Sep 01 01:34 ( 12°) 11:22 ( 7°) 21:09 ( 2°) 2020 Sep 02 06:56 ( 357°) 16:43 ( 352°) 2020 Sep 03 02:31 ( 347°) 12:18 ( 342°) 22:05 ( 337°) 2020 Sep 04 07:53 ( 332°) 17:40 ( 327°) 2020 Sep 05 03:27 ( 322°) 23:02 ( 312°) 2020 Sep 06 08:49 ( 307°) 18:36 ( 302°) 2020 Sep 07 04:24 ( 297°) 14:11 ( 292°) 23:58 ( 287°) 2020 Sep 08 09:46 ( 282°) 19:33 ( 277°) 2020 Sep 09 05:20 ( 272°) 15:08 ( 268°) 2020 Sep 10 00:55 ( 262°) 10:42 ( 257°) 20:29 ( 252°) 2020 Sep 11 06:17 ( 248°) 16:04 ( 242°) 2020 Sep 12 01:51 ( 237°) 11:39 ( 233°) 21:26 ( 227°) 2020 Sep 13 07:13 ( 222°) 17:01 ( 218°) 2020 Sep 14 02:48 ( 213°) 12:35 ( 207°) 22:23 ( 203°) 2020 Sep 15 08:10 ( 198°) 17:57 ( 193°) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Additional information can be found on the preliminary report by the BAA, and a second ellaborate report.
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UPDATE 08 September: David Hamilton
from Puerto Rico has obtained a clear view of a 3rd outbreak in the
NTB at L2 approximately 324. A possible previous observation by Andy Casely
2 rotations before and by Cory Schmitz will serve to constrain the first stages of this new storm. New observations of this 3rd outbreak are needed.
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